THE US SHRIMP MARKET January-March 2003

US imports of shrimp continue to increase in 2003.
During the first quarter of 2003, US shrimp imports increased by 16% in both value and volume terms, compared to the same period last year. Volume imports amounted to almost 95 000 MT, a record level for the first quarter. The average import price has remained largely unchanged. For the month of March, imports amounted to 29 400 MT, 20% above March 2002 levels.

The main imported categories were frozen shell-on shrimp at 45 500 MT ($ 374 million) and peeled shrimp at almost 31,000 MT (US$ 235 Million). These volume figures represent increases of 15 and 19% respectively on the first quarter 2002.
In the shell-on category, there has been an increase in imports of all counts. The only exception is size U/15 which recorded a decline in both volume and value terms. On the other hand, smaller sizes have increased market share, although at lower price levels than during the same period last year.

Import prices of counts 15/20 and 21/25 increased. While volumes of 15/20 remained stable, there was a 15% of increase for 21/25. This is reflected in the price evolution for black tiger shrimp. As shown in the graphic below, prices of larger sizes increased during the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2002, while the opposite trend characterized the smaller sizes. In any case, price levels during the first 3 months of 2003 are still below levels for the same period in 2001.

Main Exporting Nations

Thailand remains the main shrimp supplier to the US market contributing some 16% of total imported volume. However, Thai imports fell by 5% this year confirming a downward trend which started during the final quarter of last year. On the other hand, Vietnam managed to increase its market share in both volume and value terms by 7% and 11% respectively. India, despite increased sales to the US market, has dropped to third position as a supplier. In fourth position is Mexico which records the top position in terms of unit prices (US$14.1 / kg) while China comes in at the bottom end of the unit price scale (US$ 5.64 / kg).

Countries with the strongest rates of increase in supplies to the USA include Brazil ( + 81% in volume and + 55% in value), Venezuela (+ 60% and + 50%) and Ecuador (+ 25% and + 15%).

Latin American countries are the leading suppliers in the smaller sizes. Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela account for almost 70% of total imports of count U/70. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Mexico and India are the top exporters of large shrimp, with 57% of U15, 67% of 15/20 and 48% of 21/25.

Regarding value added products, namely frozen- peeled and other preparations, the Asian countries remaine the main suppliers.

O U T L O O K: Most recent trends and outlook for the next weeks

The market remains unstable. The start of the US Gulf Domestic inshore season is expected to result in increased volumes entering the market and, with new supplies arriving from Asia and Latin America, the supply situation will certainly evolve. This situation is beginning to be reflected in prices although they have not yet reverted to former low levels. Industry expectations that the recent Memorial Day weekend would provide a major boost for shrimp consumption were disappointed largely, it appears, because of poor nationwide weather conditions. For these reasons, distributors are not buying ahead as they suspect that prices could decline further.

Observers agree that any improvement in the shrimp market still depends on an improvement in the national economy, and mainly on the consumer confidence. Both solutions do not look imminent at this point in time. It is clear, however, that changes will take place on the supply side, with increasing volumes, especially from Asian sources. For these reasons a decline of prices should be expected in the months to come.