The prolonged economic recession in Japan has continued taking toll on shrimp consumption that lagged behind in 2003 against 2002 particularly for raw frozen shrimp. Although the international market prices for shrimp remained weak and the yen has been relatively firm throughout the year, it did not help to boost shrimp consumption in the Japanese market. The market continues to be price sensitive towards high value fishery products and shrimp is one of them. A popular seafood though, shrimp in general is perceived as an expensive seafood by Japanese consumers now-a-days.

Market trends in 2003

The market was dominated by supplies from Indonesia and Vietnam. However, domestic demand for all species of raw headless shell-on shrimp remained low throughout the year. Indian farmed black tiger lost some market shares due to the muddy odor in shrimp which was a result of the draught in certain areas in India. The situation also affected prices of Indian shrimp in the Japanese market which took more than a year to rectify. In comparison head-on shrimp, particularly farmed black tiger shrimp and sea-caught Irian variety had seen a better market during the peak consumption periods i.e., the beginning and end of the year. Due to the high price factor, Australian sea-caught tiger shrimp were avoided by many supermarkets, subsequently, imports from this origin declined in 2003.

The market for peeled tail-on nobashi shrimp remained rather stable throughout the year. Vietnam and Thailand were the main suppliers of these shrimp.

Imports

In 2003, the market imported about 284 000 MT of shrimp with an estimated value of US$ 2.5 billion. This included live, fresh/chilled, frozen, dried and various kinds of value-added shrimp products including tempura and sushi shrimp.

Total imports of shrimp fell by 3.3% or 10 000 MT compared to the year before due to the declining imports of frozen raw shrimp that made more than 86% of the total supply of imported shrimp. On the other hand, imports of valued-added products such as cooked and other kinds of prepared shrimp increased during this period. Nonetheless, this was not enough to offset the declines in raw frozen shrimp supplies which made bulk of the imports. Thailand, Vietnam and China were the main exporters of value-added shrimp to the Japanese market.

Supplies of imported raw frozen shrimp in 2003, which consisted of head-on, headless shell-on, nobashi (peeled tail-on) and other raw peeled shrimp, declined by 6% (15 617 MT) to 233 251 MT at a value of ¥ 225 584 million or US$ 2.07 billion (US$ 1 = 108.74) against ¥ 269 693 or US$ 2.19 billion.

In order of ranking, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, PR China and Thailand were the five leading suppliers of tropical to the Japanese market. Exports of warmwater shrimp from most of the producing countries to Japan declined except from Vietnam (+ 12.8%), China (+ 4.5%) and Sri Lanka (+ 42.5%). Imports from the latter was only 3 055 MT. Increased supply of nobashi shrimp mainly contributed to higher imports from Vietnam whereas China exported more farmed vannamei shrimp (particularly peeled shrimp) to the Japanese market last year. Exports from Indonesia fell by 2.3%. From India supplies declined significantly by 19% (- 6 630 MT) compared to 2002.

Coldwater shrimp

Russia, Canada, Greenland and Argentina were the leading suppliers of coldwater shrimp to the Japanese market. Total imports of these shrimp declined in 2003 due to a significant drop in supply from Argentina (-58%). Imports from the seven countries who supplied nearly 90% of the Japanese coldwater shrimp imports, totaled 33 364 MT in 2003 against 38 355 MT in 2002.

Price trend

The average per kilogram import price for raw frozen shrimp in 2003 was the lowest at ¥ 966 compared to ¥ 1083 in 2002 and ¥ 1128 in 2001. The price declines for Indian, Indonesian and Thai shrimp were more compared to the Vietnamese shrimp. For example the average price for Vietnamese shrimp fell from ¥ 977in 2001 to ¥ 935 in 2003 between 2001 -2003 where as for Indian and Indonesian shrimp it declined from ¥ 1079 to ¥849/kg and from ¥ 1264 to ¥ 1072 /kg respectively during 2002-2003.

Mixed trends were reported for farmed shrimp prices namely black tiger (P. monodon) and Pacific white (vannamei) shrimp for the Japanese market.

An over supply of farmed vannamei particularly from China kept the market prices of peeled shrimp pretty low in the international market. Supplies of farmed black tiger remained stable during the first half of 2003. The initiation of the anti-dumping dumping case in the USA against six leading shrimp producers prompted import rush into the USA during the last quarter of the year and in some cases prices increased beyond the reach of Japanese buyers. In fact offer prices from Japan declined from US$ 12.00/kg (c&f) in December 2002 to US$ 10. 30/kg in December 2003 due to the falling domestic demand for shrimp, although the yen appreciated in 2003.

Market trends in 2004

During the first two months of the year, shrimp prices have strengthened due to strong buying from the USA from major black tiger shrimp suppliers including India, Vietnam and Thailand. From March, US demand has moved to those countries not targeted under the anti-dumping case. This has shifted supplies of Indonesian shrimp from Japan to the US market at prices the Japanese market has not been able to pay so far.

Despite the positive forecast on the Japanese economy, the market continues to remain price sensitive. While the Japanese consumer’s love for fishery products remains strong, the preference is more for cheaper products. Hence shrimp has become more of a choice for festive season.