Following increases in several key European markets in 2003, imports of canned sardines have slowed in a number of these markets during the early months of this year. This trend appears to be having a limited impact on Moroccan exporters which continue to increase market share in Europe.

Morocco benefits from discount trend in French retail trade

The latest discount price trend within the French retail sector appears to be boosting canned sardine imports from low cost producers. Morocco, which accounted for two thirds of French imports last year, further increased its share of imports, to 70%, during the January – May period this year. Average unit values for French canned sardine imports from Morocco are, at €2.30/kg, well below those for Portugal (€3.93/kg) and Spain (€3.95/kg), two countries which account for the balance of French imports. Spain, the third largest supplier to France has seen its share of imports fall from 10% in 2003 to 6% this year. Portugal has maintained its import share at around 22%.

More generally, the upward trend in French canned sardine imports has continued into 2004. Following a 8% increase to 14 000 tonnes and a similar value increase to €39 million last year, both volumes and values increased by 13% and 11% respectively during the first five months of 2004. On current trends, France should pass the 15 000 tonne import level for the first time during 2004. A positive French import trend since 1995 has been matched by a fluctuating downward trend in domestic canned sardine production. Last year, French production, at 8 800 tonnes, was down 12% on the 2002 level. Strong price competition from Morocco has forced French sardine canners to orient domestic production towards higher value niche markets (fillets, ‘production a l’ancienne’, Label Rouge etc.).

Collapse in UK canned pilchard imports

Trends in the UK canned sardine / pilchard market provide a stark contrast to those in France, with UK import volumes on a steady downward curve in recent years. Following a 2% drop in 2002, volumes fell 8% last year (to 11 600 tonnes) and are down 10% for the first five months of 2004. A key underlying factor in this trend is the collapse in canned pilchard imports from the Southern Hemisphere. Weak pilchard landings in South Africa and Namibia were reflected in a 34% fall in combined sales to the UK during 2003 and a further fall of 41% for the January – May period this year.

The gap created by this decline has been filled by an increase in canned sardine imports from Morocco, up 21% in volume terms this year. As in other European markets, the Moroccan share of UK imports has been increasing in recent years and should exceed 50% for the first time during 2004. The Moroccan performance contrasts with that of Portugal which has seen a halving of its canned sardine sales, in both value and volume terms, to the UK this year. The leading canned sardine supplier to the UK for a number of years, Portugal lost this position to Morocco in volume terms in 2003 and looks set to remain in second position during 2004. As in the French market, a significant differential in average unit values exists between Portugal (£2.35/kg) and Morocco (£1.59/kg).

Pause in upward trend in German canned sardine imports

Germany is the second largest importer of canned sardines in the EU with volumes of just under 11 000 tonnes (€30.2 million) in 2003. The country is also a significant canned sardine exporter - sales for 2003 came to 4 000 tonnes. Despite increasing average unit values in recent years, volume imports have been increasing steadily: +7% in 2002, +6% in 2003. Exports have also increased: +28% last year with France and the UK the main markets. However, the upward import trend may be broken in 2004 with indications for the first four months showing volumes down 13% compared to the same period in 2003. The value of imports this year is also down by a similar percentage. Exports, on the other hand, continue to increase, volumes are up 9% for the January – April period this year with France and the UK again the main destinations.

With Morocco dominating the German canned sardine market, 95% of imports, the fall in overall canned sardine imports largely reflects a 13% drop in Moroccan sales to Germany this year.

Morocco continues to increase market share in Italy

With strong domestic anchovy sales, Italy remains a relatively small importer of canned sardines. Although up 13% last year, total import volumes amounted to just under 3 000 tonnes for 2003 as a whole. As in Germany, imports have fallen this year, -17% for the first four months compared to the same period in 2003.

Canned sardines from Morocco continue to increase market penetration. Although sales from Morocco are marginally down this year, the country has noticeably increased its share of imports jumping from 49% in 2003 to 57% this year. This increase is mainly at the expense of the second largest supplier to Italy, Portugal, whose share of imports has fallen from 27 to 16%.

Retail price focus to benefit low cost producers

The current focus on price by leading European retail chains, notably in France and the UK, is likely to benefit low cost producers in the canned sardine industry. This trend should help Moroccan exporters to further consolidate their strong position within Europe. On the other hand, relatively higher cost producers such as Spain and Portugal are facing the prospect of further marginalization in key markets.

Gerry O’Sullivan
© 2004 FAO