Tentative First Half Recovery in Japanese Shrimp Imports

The trend in Japanese frozen shrimp imports looks somewhat more positive this year, at least in volume terms. Volume imports in 2003 had fallen 6% compared to the previous year. The first half of this year has seen a reversal of this trend with imports up 8% to over 100 000 tonnes compared to the first half of 2003. It is not yet clear, however, whether this positive trend can be sustained throughout 2004. The increase during the first half of this year is based largely on a jump in imports during the early months of the year. During subsequent months, import volumes have been lower than corresponding 2003 levels with May down 14% and June down 13% on, respectively, May and June last year.

In value terms, the import trend remains negative. Last year saw a drop of 16% in the value of Japanese shrimp imports. This year, the value of first half imports is down 2% despite the volume increase. This fall in import values reflects continued weakness in international shrimp prices – unit values for Japanese imports are down 9% this year compared to the January – June period in 2003.

The increase in Japanese volume imports during the first half of this year reflected a significant jump in sales from Vietnam and India, both of which registered increases of over 20%. Sales from China were also up significantly, +13%, while volumes from Indonesia, the number one supplier to Japan, remained stable. In terms of import share, Indonesia and Vietnam remain the leading suppliers, together accounting for over 40% of total imports. At the same time, the Indonesian share of imports has fallen from 25 to 23.4% this year.

In stark contrast to its increasingly strong role in certain European markets, Brazilian shrimps remain marginal in the Japanese market. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that Brazilian sales to Japan more than doubled during the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

Japanese coldwater shrimp imports remain dominated by Russia, Greenland and Canada. Volume sales from all three countries are, however, down somewhat this year compared to the same period of 2003.

Uncertain outlook for second half

Initial indications for the second half of 2004 suggest some uncertainty regarding the impact of the preliminary US antidumping decisions. There is a view that countries unaffected by the rulings, such as Indonesia and the Philippines may switch supplies from Japan to the US market possibly resulting in some upward price pressure in Japan. On the other hand, countries affected by the ruling may focus more on the Japanese market. In any event, new developments which are likely to alter market parameters can be expected during the latter half of the year, traditionally the stronger period for Japanese shrimp imports.

Gerry O’Sullivan
© 2004 FAO