Mackerel prices remain strong during 2005

UK consumers may not be the world’s most consummate eaters of mackerel, but each year they buy more than 8,000 tonnes of chilled mackerel products, worth around EUR58.8m (GBP40m), more than 60% of which are smoked fillets. In addition, some 200 tonnes of frozen mackerel are consumed, with a value of over EUR1.47m, and again, the emphasis is on smoked fillets.
Mackerel makes up around 56% by volume and 85% by value of annual pelagic landings in the UK. The country also imports around 30,000 tonnes per year, worth some EUR29.4m, 93% of which is sourced from Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Total export volumes for frozen mackerel were virtually unchanged between 2004 and 2005 for the January – June period, while total value rose by +22%. Significant falls in exports to the major markets of Russia, Lithuania and Portugal were balanced by increases in exports to other countries, particularly Nigeria and China. The rise in total value reflects an average increase in the unit price of +21%, with particularly strong rises of around +50% in Russia and China.

Frozen fillets showed a rise of +49% in volume and +67% in value, which represents an average rise in unit price of +11%. However, the frozen fillet sector represents less than 1% of total exports.

Norwegian exports of frozen mackerel fell by around 16,000 tonnes between 2004 and 2005 for the January – July period. This fall represented a -25% reduction in volume. The biggest falls in volume were seen in exports to China (-26%), Ukraine (-68%) and Turkey (-48%), but this was balanced to some extent by a large increase in exports to Japan of +48% and to Romania of +131%.

Increases in unit price of nearly +50% in the major markets of China and Japan and a general rise of +41%, led to an overall increase of +5% in the total value of exports, despite the fall in volume.

Frozen fillets showed a slight fall in volume of -10% but a strong rise in unit price of +32%, leading to an overall increase in export value of +19%. Frozen fillets account for around 1% of the total market, with the with the bulk of Norwegian export sales in whole frozen form.

Total imports of mackerel into Germany were virtually unchanged between January and May 2004-2005, with just a slight decrease of -1%. Within this overall static picture there was a change of emphasis away from frozen fillets, which reduced by -62%, towards frozen whole mackerel, which increased by +59% to become the largest sector.

Ireland remains the dominant supplier to Germany of frozen whole fish and fillets. The UK became a significant supplier in the frozen whole fish sector, while Denmark increased its sales in the fresh sector, which grew by +38%. The value of total imports grew by +26%, with particularly strong price increases in the frozen sector of +50% and an overall average price increase of +28%.

While total French imports of mackerel between January and June 2004-2005 showed no great changes, there was a significant move away from fresh supplies to frozen fish, and a change in principle suppliers.

Imports of fresh whole mackerel fell from 56% to 41% of the total, while frozen whole mackerel imports rose from 40% to 55%.

In the fresh market, imports from the UK and Ireland fell by -26% and -70% respectively, while imports from Spain rose by +462%. In the same period, the unit price in Spain fell by –39% from EUR1.21/kg to EUR0.74/kg.

In the frozen sector imports from Ireland fell, largely due to internal problems within the Irish pelagic industry, but this deficit was more than filled by a rise in imports from the UK and new supplies from Spain, where the unit price is considerably lower. Overall, the frozen market rose by +38%.

Frozen fillets remained at around 4% of the total, with Ireland being the principle supplier.

Bumper autumn prices …

As the autumn season sees large shoals of mackerel move along the coast of Norway and into Skagerrak, the North Sea and the southern parts of the Norwegian Sea, the industry reports good catches and strong prices. Scottish sources confirm that demand from Russia is driving price increases.

According to Guus Pastoor of the Dutch Fish Federation, prices achieved in the Netherlands during the early season were particularly good, due to high demand from Russia and Japan. This effect has carried over into the new season, with even higher prices expected for the catch.

“For the smoking industry this means significantly higher costs, even if they buy later on in the season, because expectations are that prices will remain high,” he says. “The knock on effect is that retail prices for smoked mackerel will have to go up, but as many contracts with retailers are fixed for a certain period, it may not be felt immediately at this level. However, price increases will sooner or later become a reality for the consumer,” he adds. Autumn mackerel is particularly good for smoking as it can have fat levels as high as 30%.

Nicki Holmyard
© 2005 Eurofish