High Price For Mackerel but Can it Last?

Mackerel had a mixed year in 2005 with reduced landings, and quayside and export prices reaching new heights. However, this situation is not expected to last, as processors report increasingly difficult market conditions at the end of the year.

A major Scottish pelagic processor confessed that traders and consumers had almost reached the limit of what they will accept. “We have a backlog of frozen mackerel to sell and are finding it difficult to achieve the price we paid for it,” he informed. Competition for landings during the short autumn season was one major factor cited for pushing prices up by 40 percent in some instances.

The market is generally expected to weaken in the near future, but processors are also looking at cheaper alternative species such as Jack Mackerel to bring some stability back into the price structure.

A growing development is for whole mackerel to be sent to China for processing and re-exporting, mainly to the Japanese market. To counter this, and to reduce their own processing costs, several European mackerel processors have established factories and partnerships in China.

Total mackerel imports into Italy were stable at around 7,000 tonnes in the period January-August 2005 compared with 2004, while the average unit value and total value rose by 12 percent.

Fresh mackerel made up approximately 70 percent of total imports in the first eight months of the year and the volume increased by around 400 tonnes. This was balanced by decreases in the import of frozen and filleted fish.

The largest exporter to Italy was Spain, which supplied fresh, frozen and fillets of mackerel. In the fresh category, the unit value of mackerel was down –9 percent, while an increase of 39 percent in volume saw an overall value increase of 27 percent.

France and the Netherlands are also important suppliers to Italy. However, an increase of 33 percent in unit value of frozen mackerel from the Netherlands saw Italian imports decrease by –19%, while a –29 percent reduction in unit value of frozen mackerel from France, resulted in an increased import of 33 percent.

Total mackerel import volumes showed a slight fall of around -2 percent in the period January-August 2004-2005, while total value rose by 14 percent and average unit values rose by 17 percent.

While overall volumes were stable, there was a strong change in the make up of the market, with increases of 16 percent in fresh imports and 52 percent in frozen imports, which were more than balanced by a reduction of -59 percent in the import of fillets.

The principle suppliers to the German market are Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands, with the USA supplying minor quantities of frozen mackerel.

There were particularly strong increases in the unit value of supplies from Ireland, which are attributed to a large reduction in landings in that country.

Imports of frozen mackerel from the USA dropped by –45 percent, while the unit value rose by more than 100 percent from 0.62 €/kg to 1.3€/kg, bringing it in line with imports from Ireland and the Netherlands.

Fresh mackerel imports into France fell slightly by 7 percent in the period January – September 2004-2005 with the main source of supply switching from the UK and Ireland, to Spain, where unit values were significantly lower. The Spanish unit value fell by 46 percent from 1.23 €/kg to 0.67 €/kg, while the Irish unit value rose by 70 percent from 0.53 €/kg to 0.90 €/kg, and the UK value remained stable at around 0.85 €/kg.

There was a 74 percent increase in frozen mackerel imports into France and a 75 percent increase in total value, with the UK and Ireland being the principal suppliers. Imports from the UK rose by 47% percent in volume and 18% in unit value, while those from Ireland rose by 103 percent in volume but fell by –32 percent in unit value.

The market for fillets fell overall by –6 percent, with the principal supplier Ireland, decreasing its supply by –34 percent, due to difficulties being experienced in the country’s pelagic processing industry.

The total value of all mackerel imports into France rose by 41 percent to €16.2 million, which represents a 27 percent rise in overall volume and a 10 percent rise in unit value.

Exports of mackerel from the UK in the period January – September 2004-2005 rose by 5 percent in volume and 23 percent in total value, and showed a strong increase in the unit value.

A significant fall in the export to Russia and Lithuania was more than compensated for by an increase in exports to other countries, particularly the Netherlands, Poland and China. Exports to these countries increased by 254 percent, 291 percent and 130 percent respectively.

Sales of fillets also increased in both volume and value, with the principal market being Denmark.

A 25 percent fall in the total volume of mackerel exports was more than matched by a rise in the unit value of 40 percent, leading to an overall rise in total value of 5 percent to 2.2 billion NOK in the period January – November 2004-2005. This represents an increase of 100 million NOK compared with the same period last year.

Falls in export volume to the important markets of China, Ukraine, Japan and Turkey were only partly offset by rises in the volume of exports to Russia. However, Japan remains the largest and most important market for exports of mackerel from Norway.

Unit values showed increases across the board, with particuarly strong prices for exports to the Ukraine and Japan to almost 15 NOK/kg.

Nicki Holmyard
© 2005 Eurofish