Quotas – Stable supply?

The total quotas were gradually reduced from 2003 to 2005. In 2006 the total quota is slightly higher than in 2005.

From a quota perspective there should thus only be minor changes in the supply from the main European catching nations in 2006 compared to last year. However, some industry observers expect that the exports of mackerel caught by the UK fleet will be considerably lower than in 2005 despite stable quota levels.

Trade - Focus on Japan

External exports EU15

According to Eurostat the exports from the EU15 have decreased considerably over the last three years, from 313.000 tonnes in 2003 to 188.000 tonnes in 2005.

External exports EU15

According to Eurostat the exports from the EU15 have decreased considerably over the last three years, from 313.000 tonnes in 2003 to 188.000 tonnes in 2005.

The EU15 exporters drastically reduced their exports of mackerel to Nigeria and Russia in the course of this period. The exports to Poland, which acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004, increased on the other hand considerably. However, the exports to another recent member of the EU, Lithuania, went down with more than 60 per cent from 2004 to 2005. The exports from EU15 to Japan increased in 2005 while it decreased somewhat to China. This can be an indication that the Japanese industry is processing more of the mackerel itself.

Norwegian exports and imports

Total Norwegian exports have seen a considerable decrease in line with the quota reductions and reduced imports. Imports went down almost 50 percent from 2004 to 2005.

Despite the overall reductions in volumes, the Norwegians maintain their focus, relatively speaking, on Japan and China. Also Russia and Ukraine remain important markets.

The exports from Norway the three first months of this year have basically followed the same pattern as the first quarter of 2005.


Canadian exports of frozen mackerel

The Canadians have increased their exports considerably over the last three years. However, the volumes stay relatively small compared to the European suppliers. China is the biggest market for Canadian mackerel followed by Japan. The Japanese market has become increasingly important to the Canadian exporters. This again is a sign that the Japanese industry is searching for alternative supplies of mackerel.

High prices create unease within the industry

The prices on mackerel sky rocketed from 2004 to 2005. The average price on EU mackerel exports increased by 19% (Price/EUR), the Canadian exports by 36% (Price/CAD) and the Norwegian exports by more than 40% (price/NOK).

The high prices create unease among the suppliers as they worry that the high prices will lead to negative reactions from the buyers. The Japanese market is crucial for all suppliers and according to some exporters there are signals that the current price level makes mackerel a less interesting product for Japanese retailers.

Outlook 2006

It is always difficult to predict what will happen in the pelagic industry. Before the main mackerel season in autumn 2006 there are more question marks then ever. First, there is uncertainty related to UK fleet. If the catches should be lower than the quota level indicates this should lead to even higher prices this year. Many believe that the price level in the previous season was not sustainable and fear that further pressure on the prices eventually will damage the position of mackerel on the Japanese market. In any case, it is expected that the Japanese buyers will be on the lookout for alternative sources for mackerel.

Ann-Mari Haram
© 2006 EUROFISH