Initial indications for 2006 point to positive price trend for European shrimp imports

Indications for the early months of 2005 point to an increase in prices for imported shrimp in key European markets as reflected in higher average unit values. However, trends in import volumes are mixed with the positive 2005 trend in Spanish and Italian imports continuing into 2006 while French imports have declined.

Positive trend in Spanish imports from China continues into 2006

Imports into Spain, Europe’s leading shrimp market, grew by 7% last year to a record 156 000 tonnes. The upward trend has continued this year with volumes jumping almost 50% to over 20 000 tonnes during the January-February period compared to the first two months of 2005. The strong growth this year, however, partly reflects relatively low import levels during January-February 2005. This year’s volumes are more in line with, but still above, the 2004 level of 19 000 tonnes.

The most striking development in Spanish shrimp imports last year was the strong increase in sales from China, volumes increasing from around 3 000 tonnes in 2004 to almost 27 000 tonnes. This increase was linked to the easing of restrictions on Chinese farmed shrimp sales to EU countries. The strong upward trend has continued into 2006, volumes from China almost doubling to around 5 500 tonnes during the first two months. China looks set to maintain its number one position as a supplier to Spain this year, accounting for over a quarter of total shrimp imports during the January February period.

Strong import growth was also registered last year for shrimp from Ecuador, with Spanish imports increasing from 9 300 tonnes in 2004 to 15 600 tonnes. This upward trend is also evident during the current year, volumes increasing from less than 900 (Jan-Feb 2005) to almost 2 400 tonnes. Ecuador has now overtaken Brazil as the second supplier to Spain. After strong growth up to 2003, Brazilian farmed shrimp production and exports fell back in 2004 due to a combination of production and economic difficulties. Spanish frozen shrimp imports from Brazil are down 13% for the first two months of the year to 1 400 tonnes.

An upward trend in Spanish import prices this year is suggested by higher average unit values for imported frozen shrimp: €5.40/kg for the first two months compared to €5.12/kg for the same period last year.

Drop in French imports follows fall in supplies from Brazil

Following several years of steadily increasing volumes, French shrimp imports were stable at just over 100 000 tonnes in 2005. Initial indications for 2006 point to a drop in volume imports for the first time in recent years. In contrast, the value of imports is up slightly, at over €62 million, suggesting an increase in average price levels.

The drop in French imports this year reflects an almost halving of imports from Brazil, the largest volume supplier to France since 2002. Brazil was still the leading French supplier during January February but on current trends, it will be overtaken by Ecuador over the coming months. As in Spain, imports from Ecuador increased sharply during the first two months, up over 70% compared with the same period last year. Significant increases were also registered for India and Indonesia. Following Brazil however, volume declines were registered for other leading shrimp suppliers such as the Netherlands and Madagascar. Despite a drop in sales, Madagascar remains the leading shrimp supplier to France in value terms.

As in Spain, unit values for frozen shrimp imports are up for the January-February period, + 11% to €4.97/kg compared with the first two months of 2005.

Increased Italian imports from Denmark and India balance reduced sales from Ecuador

Italian shrimp imports have been increasing since 2003, reaching a record 62 000 tonnes last year. The positive trend has continued into 2006, volumes increasing by 5% for the January-February period compared with the first two months of 2005.

This year’s increase has come about despite a 13% drop in imports from Ecuador, the leading supplier. Ecuador accounted for almost a quarter of total Italian shrimp imports in 2005 following a 36% increase in volumes over the previous year. Notwithstanding the decline, Ecuador remains the number one supplier to Italy, continuing to account for around 25% of imports.

This year’s decline in imports from Ecuador was more than compensated for by increases for other leading suppliers, including both Denmark and India. A 25% increase in volumes from Denmark confirmed the country’s position as the second supplier to Italy. At the same time, India confirmed its position as the leading Asian supplier with a 43% volume increase.

Average unit values for Italian shrimp imports are up 17% this year. While part of this increase is due to increased imports of higher priced Argentinean wild shrimp, significant unit value increases are also evident for other countries such as Ecuador.

Price outlook in Europe remains uncertain for second half of 2006

Comments at the recent seafood exhibition in Brussels suggest a continuation of the upward price trend for shrimp at least in dollar terms. Lower production levels in some countries combined with growing domestic demand in countries such as Brazil, Thailand and China, are expected to weaken supplies at international trade level. At the same time, the recent dollar weakness should help limit euro price increases in the main European markets during the second half of 2006.

Gerry O'Sullivan
© 2006 FAO