A year of mixed fortunes

The market at the tail end of 2005 and into 2006 was a mixed one, which saw a year of high prices for raw material and uncertainties in the market, especially in Japan. However, the year ended with prices for finished product becoming more attractive at consumer level, especially in Eastern Europe.

UK Exports

The UK and Ireland experienced difficult times in 2005/2006 with investigations into blackfish landings and consequent quota penalties to the fleet. Scottish pelagic fishermen now have to repay more than 50,000 tonnes of herring and mackerel quota over the next 6 years, which represents all the herring and 75% of the mackerel caught over quota between 2001 and 2005. At current value, this repayment amounts to more than £32 million.

Total exports of frozen mackerel from the UK in the period January – November 2005-2006 fell by 34% from 88,000 tonnes to 58,000 tonnes. However, the value of those exports fell by only 17% as the average unit price rose by 25% from 1.25€/kg to 1.54€/kg.

This situation was particularly affected by a redirection of exports away from the low unit value markets of Nigeria, Poland, China and Latvia, into Russia, where unit values rose from 1.70€/kg to 1.84€/kg. This led to Russia taking nearly 50% of total exports.

The Netherlands, the second largest importer of UK frozen mackerel, showed little change in volume or unit value at around 11,600 tonnes and 0.86€/kg.

Unit values in France and Denmark rose strongly by 60% but exports also fell by around 60%, possibly as a result of some price resistance.

Fillets remained a small part of the total export at around 1%. The Czech Republic was the largest importer of fillets in 2005 but dropped the UK as a supplier in 2006. Italy and Poland decreased imports by 29% and 16% respectively, while unit values to these countries increased by around 34%.

Interestingly, market intelligence from Eastern Europe is that sales of chilled fresh fish, especially mackerel and herring, are up by 75% in the last 12 months in the Czech Republic, while frozen sales have declined.

Only the US showed an increase in volume, with a rise of 35% from 54 – 73 tonnes. This was accompanied by a 10% drop in unit value from 3.50€/kg to 3.14€/kg.

Norwegian Exports

Overall exports of frozen mackerel from Norway fell by 15% from 166,000 tonnes to 141,000 tonnes between January and December 2005-2006. This was accompanied by an easing of the unit value by 17%, resulting in a drop in total value of 29%.

Notable changes within the market were a 38% reduction in sales to China from 41,000 tonnes to 25,000 tonnes and a fall in unit value of 21% from 12.42 NOK/kg to 10.57 NOK/kg. More significantly, sales to Japan fell by 43% from 79,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes. This was also accompanies by a significant drop of 18% in unit value from 14.98 NOK/kg to 12.23 NOK/kg. These decreases in export were only partly compensated for by a rise in exports to Russia and the Ukraine of 108% and 39% respectively.

Unit values also declined by 15% in Russia, falling from 13.95 NOK/kg to 11.82 NOK/kg and by 26% in Ukraine, from 14.29 NOK/kg to 10.56 NOK/kg. Fillet sales rose by 26% from 911 to 1,150 tonnes, although this sector remained at less than 1% of total exports.

Fillet sales rose overall but there was a decline in sales to the 3 top countries Japan, Sweden and Poland, indicating a greater sales spread.

Unit values for fillets slipped slightly overall by 4%, although there were increases of 26% and 67% to Sweden and Poland, albeit on small volumes.

Norwegian export prices to Japan hit a new low in the autumn of 2006 with minimum prices of NOK 5.5/kg for 500-524 grams (down from NOK 10/kg in late spring), NOK 5/kg for 450-474 grams (down from NOK 8.5/kg) and NOK 4.25 for 400-425 grams (down from NOK 7.5/kg). The Japanese market began late in the season, with buyers waiting for fish with higher fat content.

Meanwhile, new Russian import regulations led to a tightening of the market in 2006 for Norway, with consignments of fish either turned into fishmeal or cancelled. These problems were coupled with rumours flying around the market that the early season catch was of low quality/fat content, making it unsuitable for smoking, leading to further stops on imports.

In October three of Norway’s largest pelagic producers announced a merger to create the world’s largest herring and mackerel supplier. Domstein Pelagic, Global Fish and Westcoast have signed a letter of intent to merge and will operate separately until summer 2007.

Italian Imports

Total Italian imports of mackerel rose by 41% in volume in the period January –October 2005-2006, from 8,636 tonnes to 12,190 tonnes. Of particular note was a 50% rise in fresh imports, with supply switching from France (-19%) to Spain (+89%). This move reflected a difference in unit value between supplies from the two countries, with French values +5% and Spanish values down -10%.

Frozen imports rose by 24% from 2,762 tonnes in 2005 to 3,427 in 2006, with Spain again increasing its supply significantly (+71%). Supplies from the Netherlands and France decreased by -27% and -39% respectively. It is interesting to note that the unit value of frozen mackerel imported from France rose by 54%, Spain by 33% and the Netherlands by just 16%. There was a 22% increase in overall unit value in this category.

Imports of fillets showed an 18% rise in overall volume, with supplies increasing from the Netherlands (+17%) but decreasing from Spain (-52%), where the unit value rose by 58%. However, trade in fillets with Spain has not historically been a significant business.

The overall value of mackerel imports rose by 35% from €12 million in 2005 to 16 million in 2006, with overall unit value decreasing by 5% from 1.38 €/kg to 1.32 €/kg.

French Imports

In 2006, France imported a total of 23,221 tonnes of mackerel, an increase of just 5% on the 2005 total of 22,204 tonnes.

Fresh mackerel made up around one third of total imports, but volumes fell by 11% from 8,819 tonnes to 7,815 tonnes overall. Imports decreased from the UK by -32% and from Spain -29% while unit prices of fresh mackerel from these countries increased by +69% and +34% respectively to 1.54€/kg and 0.9€/kg. Unit values of fresh product from Ireland increased by 20% to 1.25€/kg and this is accompanied by an increase of 13% in import volume.

Imports of frozen mackerel remained the largest category of total import volumes, with an 18% rise from 12,626 tonnes in 2005 to 14,946 tonnes in 2006. Within this volume total was a fall of -39% in imports from the UK, the principle supplier, where unit values increased by +68%, and a -15% fall in imports from Ireland, where unit values rose a massive 107% from 0.78€/kg to 1.62€/kg.

These decreases were more than made up for by a dramatic increase of 1,557% in imports from the USA, where volumes rose from 255 in 2005 to 4,251 in 2006, together with an increase of 123% in imports from Spain.

Imports of fillets remained at around 2-3% of the total import volume with a 39% fall in tonnage from 759 to 460 tonnes and a 3% unit value rise from 2.51€/kg to 2.59€/kg.

German Imports

Total imports of mackerel into Germany in the period January – November 2005-2006 rose just 4% by volume, from 15,587 tonnes to 16,208 tonnes, and 6% in unit value, from 1.54€/kg to 1.63€/kg. This resulted in an overall rise in value of 10%, with imports worth €26.5 million.

Within this relatively stable picture there was a strong change in emphasis, with a notable growth in the volume of fresh supplies of 48% and a sharp fall of 44% in frozen imports. There was an 18% rise in imports of fillets, with this sector accounting for around 10% of total imports.

The supplier situation also changed significantly, with Ireland increasing fresh sales from 913 tonnes to 2,710 tonnes – a rise of 197%, and frozen sales from 319 tonnes to 680 tonnes, a rise of 113%.

UK remained the largest supplier but there was a drop in its frozen supply of 68%, which was only partly compensated for by an increase in fresh sales of 21%. An increase of 66% in supply of fresh mackerel from Sweden made it the third most important supplier to Germany.

Unit values for fresh mackerel fell slightly by -6% from 1.67€/kg to 1.58€/kg but rose strongly for frozen fish by 17% from 1.23€/kg to 1.43€/kg and remained unchanged overall for fillets at 3.20€/kg. Irish fish achieved the highest unit values in all categories.

Nicki Holmyard
© 2007 EUROFISH