General trends

Europe’s appetite for imported shrimp products continues to expand. Following growth in most key markets during 2005, figures for 2006 (10 months) are pointing to new import records in several markets. Last year was also noteworthy in that import values generally grew faster than volumes.

Spain, Europe’s largest shrimp market, increased imports during the January-October period 2006 by 20% compared to the same period in 2005 and, at this rate, looks set to have reached a new record of over 180 000 tonnes for 2006 as a whole. French imports were static during 2005 but based on a 5-6% growth rate for the first ten months, 2006 should also see a new import record in the 100 to 110 000 tonne range. Among the bigger shrimp markets, the UK looks like being the exception with a flat import trend during 2006 – full year volumes are likely to have stagnated around the 90 000 tonne level, as in 2005.

China consolidates leading position in Spanish market

Spain’s 20% import jump last year was based on stronger volumes from several countries. China, in number one position, consolidated the strong gains achieved during 2005 after the country re-entered EU markets with its farmed shrimp products. Volumes increased by 14% during the January-October period while imports for 2006 as a whole should easily exceed the 26 000 tonnes recorded for 2005. This increase was not enough to boost China’s share of total imports which is somewhat lower than its 16% share in 2005 although significantly higher than the 1% share of 2004.

Latin America, rather than Asia, appears to have been the main impetus to Spain’s import surge during 2006. The partial recovery of Argentina’s wild Pleoticus muelleri fishery last year is reflected in a strong increase in sales. The leading supplier to Spain up to 2004, Argentina saw its exports collapse in 2005 following particularly poor fishing results. Last year’s increase lifts the country back to second position as a volume exporter to Spain while in value terms, it is once again the top supplier with sales for the ten month period exceeding €160 million. Above average growth, +38%, is also evident for Ecuador in line with the impressive recovery of its aquaculture industry. Ecuador’s share of total Spanish imports came to over 13% last year, up from around 10% during the previous year and from less than 7% in 2004.

However, the trend for Latin American exporters was not all one way with volumes from both Brazil and Columbia declining following a broadly upward trend in recent years. Brazilian sales dropped 24% while volumes from Colombia were down 7%. Farmed output in Brazil has suffered from disease and currency constraints in recent years and the industry now appears to be consolidating following strong expansion over the 2002 – 2004 period. Brazil’s share of total imports fell last year, dropping from over 12% in 2005 to less than 8%.

France resumes growth trend

Following a number years of steady growth which saw French imports jump from 70 000 tonnes in 2001 to 100 000 tonnes in 2004, volumes stabilized during 2005 around the 100 000 tonne level. The upward trend returned last year with a 6% volume increase for the ten month period while values increased by almost 8% to €445 million. The somewhat stronger value increase is seen by some importers as reflecting a shift towards larger size grades rather than as a sign of stronger prices.

A number of the trends noted in the Spanish market were also evident in France during 2006 with weaker sales from Brazil but stronger trade with Ecuador. Despite a 20% drop in volumes during the January-October period, Brazil remains the leading supplier to the French market with volumes well above those of Ecuador, the second supplier. The Brazilian volume share has, however, fallen, dropping from 25% in 2005 to under 20% last year.

Ecuador, in contrast, is matching its Spanish performance with steadily increasing volumes and import share. French imports have grown from less than 5 000 tonnes in 2004 to 7 000 tonnes in 2005 while last year, sales passed the 9 000 tonne mark, representing around 11% of total imports.

Madagascar continues to be the number one supplier to France in value terms and ten month figures point to a 5% increase in French value imports last year despite a slight volume decline. In contrast to many other suppliers, Madagascan exporters have developed a strong market oriented approach which has included several quality initiatives such as Label Rouge certification. It is perhaps not surprising that unit values for imports from Madagascar remain relatively high in spite of competitive pricing by Latin American suppliers.

Also impressive are the gains made by Indian exporters during 2006 with sales of frozen (excluding prepared) shrimp jumping by over 40% to around 6 000 tonnes. India’s share of French shrimp imports has increased steadily in recent years, a trend which appears to be influenced by the impact of US anti-dumping duties - US shrimp imports from India were down by 23% for the January-November period last year.

* Excludes prepared shrimp products

UK imports flat on weaker frozen warmwater volumes

Following record volumes of almost 94 000 tonnes in 2004, UK shrimp imports declined in 2005 to just under 90 000 tonnes. A similar outcome is likely for 2006 although the composition of imports evolved last year with lower warmwater and stronger coldwater volumes in the frozen (unprocessed) category, a reversal of the 2005 trend. Imports of processed shrimp products increased thanks to stronger supplies from both Canada and Denmark, and despite a further drop in volumes from Iceland due to weaker landings. India’s switch from the US to European markets is further underlined with increasing sales in the frozen category.

Price outlook remains competitive at the start of 2007

European price levels for imported shrimp remain relatively low. Stronger supplies from countries such as Ecuador, China, Argentina, Canada and India helped to maintain this trend during 2006. The strength of the euro and sterling vis-à-vis the dollar has also contributed to weaker prices in local currencies. While the production outlook for 2007 is difficult to predict at this point, expanding domestic shrimp markets in several producing countries such as Brazil, Thailand and China may mean lower volumes in international trade from these countries, and perhaps some firming of prices, over the 2007-2008 period.

Gerry O'Sullivan
© 2007 FAO